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Why They’re Saying Grocery Prices Are “Way Down” — When Your Cart Says Otherwise

Let’s face it: when you stroll into the supermarket and see ground beef at almost 15% more than a year ago, or coffee up nearly 19%, you know something’s off with the “prices are way down” narrative. Yet somehow, a steady stream of vaunted claims persists from politicians that grocery bills are shrinking. So—why the disconnect, and why the fibs?

First, the facts: for grocery-store food (the “food at home” index), the year-over-year increase hit roughly 2.7% in August—about the highest in two years. Meanwhile, coffee prices soared nearly 20% in the same span; beef and veal neared a 15% jump. Month-to-month, the food-at-home index rose 0.6% in August alone. The math doesn’t exactly match “way down.”

So what’s going on with the messaging? One possibility: selective framing. If you pick a handful of products that didn’trise (or even dipped slightly), you can cherry-pick a headline-friendly “prices are down” soundbite. But that ignores the full menu of data, where most categories are still nudging upward.

Another cause: displacement tactics. If politicians trumpet that gas or rent inflation is easing, they may imply the same for groceries—even if the grocery numbers are still climbing. The optics: “overall inflation nice and tame, so surely food must be…” Except, nope.

Then there’s the “feel-good” spin. It’s easier to say “groceries are coming down” than to explain tariffs, labor shortages, global supply shocks, rising feed costs, droughts and trade policy all trekking their way into your cart. Simpler slogan = easier headline. Reality = complicated.

Finally, there’s accountability avoidance. If grocery inflation keeps marching while the message says downward, you get political talking points that look disconnected from household reality. That raises the question: if people’s bread, milk, eggs and coffee cost more, who is benefiting from “prices are way down”?

At the end of the day: your receipt tells the real story. If your usual grocery trip now runs higher than a year ago, and the data backs that up—even while the spin says otherwise—then the “down” claim? Let’s call it a strong stretch rather than a straight truth.