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At first, hardly anyone wanted to believe that Putin would attack Ukraine - and when the war started, the heads of government in the western world thought Ukraine would lose it very soon.

Why were the experts of the heads of government of the European Union and US President Joe Biden (80) wrong?

Russia's army was strongly overestimated, and the Ukrainian military capacity was significantly underestimated - and this failure had severe consequences because the belief in a quick defeat in Ukraine prevented the West from supplying Ukraine with heavy military equipment at an early stage.

The Ukrainians were able to reject the Russian Mega convoy successfully

Only after the Ukrainians were able to reject the Russian Mega convoy (64 kilometers) toward Kyiv did the government advisors check their previous predictions from Washington to Berlin. And according to a report by "Voice of America" (VOA) found three reasons for their stark misjudgments.

1. Hardly any knowledge of Russia, almost no knowledge of Ukraine

"Very few people understand Russia sufficiently, and even fewer people Ukraine," said Alexander Vindman, a director of European affairs for the United States National Security Council. For example, they would have ignored that Ukraine had been with Russia in war since 2014.

Alexander Vindman was a director of European affairs for the United States National Security Council.

For example, Western analysts have not taken into account the reform of the Ukrainian army since 2014 and rely too much on "anecdotal studies of the Ukrainian skills of 2014/2015", says George Barros, an analyst for Russia and Ukraine at the "Institute for the Study of War "In Washington.

"The majority of the western expert opinion was based on the stories that Russia has promoted in the past 30 years," said the Ukrainian ambassador to the USA, Oksana Markarova, in an interview with VOA. Russia is, therefore, a great military power, and Ukraine is a weak company that would welcome Russian troops.

The Ukrainian Ambassador to the USA: Oksana Markarova.

The Ukrainian-British political scientist Taras Kuzio said that posts Vic history is mainly based on the Russian perspective, so Russian stories had found their way into the western analysis. For example, the fairy tale of the east-west division in Ukraine.

These governments are usually experts in Russia. They believe they have a god-given right also to be experts for the other 14 republics of the former USSR, which is ridiculous. It doesn't happen anywhere else in the world. If you are an expert in Argentina, you are not an expert in Brazil or Mexico, "he said.

"Many in the West wrongly thought that Ukraine was just like Russia, but weaker, more corrupt and chaotic," said Orsia Lutsevych, head of the Chatham House Ukraine Forum, in an article for the newspaper "The Guardian." "In fact, Ukraine is by no means perfect, but more agile and decentralized than the autocratic and rigid Russian state."

2. Overlooked an important military factor

These governments are usually experts in Russia. They believe they have a god-given right also to be experts for the other 14 republics of the former USSR, which is ridiculous. It doesn't happen anywhere else in the world. If you are an expert in Argentina, you are not an expert in Brazil or Mexico, "he said.

"Many in the West wrongly thought that Ukraine was just like Russia, but weaker, more corrupt and chaotic," said Orsia Lutsevych, head of the Chatham House Ukraine Forum, in an article for the newspaper "The Guardian." "In fact, Ukraine is by no means perfect, but more agile and decentralized than the autocratic and rigid Russian state."

3. Limits of the analysis not recognized

"Military analysis is not a fortune telling," explained Michael Kofman, director of the program for Russian studies at the Center for Naval Analysis. Some things are too complex to be predicted correctly.

"There was little knowledge of the defense plan of Ukraine and no indications of systematic preparation," said Kofman, who believes that Russia was not so overestimated but rather underestimated Ukraine.

Some factors that influenced what happened could not be accepted. For example, the strength of the Ukrainian society, or more difficult: how strongly the Russian secret service FSB would have permeated the Ukrainian elite.

But Kofman also says: "I think we were never seriously asked before the war how it could look when the USA supports Ukraine," he said.