DLNews  US 2024 Election:

For over four decades, one expert has consistently revealed the future of U.S. presidential elections, defying the chaos of American politics with near-perfect predictions. American University professor Allan Lichtman has become synonymous with election foresight. His record is almost impeccable, having correctly predicted nearly every U.S. presidential election since 1981, including Donald Trump's shocking victory in 2016 and Joe Biden's defeat in 2020.

Lichtman’s method, however, is not based on polling data or political punditry. Along with the late geophysicist Wladimir Keilis-Borok, he developed a unique "13 keys to the White House" system grounded in 120 years of presidential elections. It’s a binary framework—each "key" is answered with a simple "true" or "false." A "true" favors the incumbent party (in this case, the Democrats), while a "false" shifts the advantage to the challenger.

The system’s simplicity masks its depth. Key 1, for example, concerns the incumbent party's performance in midterm elections. Despite the Democrats outperforming expectations in 2022, Lichtman marks this as "false"—and thus, a point for Trump—because they ultimately lost control of the House of Representatives.

Then there’s Key 3, which asks if the incumbent president is running. Since Biden handed the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris, this is also marked "false"—again favoring Trump.

Yet, not all the keys are in Trump’s favor. Key 4, which checks for the presence of a strong third-party candidate, works for Harris, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exited the race, consolidating Democratic votes. Likewise, Key 9, which probes for major scandals in the White House, goes to Harris. Despite Republican efforts, no significant scandal has stuck to the Biden administration.

Two of the 13 keys remain uncertain at this time. However, the interim score stands at eight keys for Harris and three for Trump. It’s a substantial lead, hinting that the Democrats may be on the path to victory, though the final two keys could shift the balance.

Lichtman says, "There is practically nothing Trump can actively do with this system—it is beyond his capabilities!" Despite his legendary streak, Republicans hope that the election oracle might finally fall short this time. Will the 2024 election break the mold? Time will tell.